Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018
All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
